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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."